Good evening everyone, I'm Xin Ya. Yesterday's short position was executed smoothly; I've been holding shorts since the sixth and haven't wavered. Closed a position that night, and the spot I indicated was confirmed by the market this morning—wasn't 80,500 today's wick? Check the candlestick to see for yourself. Same goes for Ethereum at 2,520, both are key layout points for the main force.
Reviewing the move:
On the night of September 6, BTC dropped from the 15-minute EMA120 and EMA144 averages around 79,800, tested the 1-hour EMA144 at 79,200, then rebounded back to 79,800. After a brief consolidation, it pushed up to test 80,500 and was rejected, dropping sharply with the lowest wick touching the 1-hour MA200 near 78,900. In this process, 79,200 repeatedly acted as both a rebound and resistance point—very important to mark. The intraday range mostly oscillated around 79,200. The current position is tricky, around the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144.
For Ethereum on the night of September 6, the lowest wick was 2,457, closing at 2,480. During consolidation, the price moved tug-of-war upward, with the day's high at 2,536. Pay attention to the details: during the morning's upward tug, Ethereum faced resistance at 2,520, and a series of red candles followed. At 10:00 (UTC+8), there was a sudden surge, likely to liquidate scattered orders. However, after the pullback, the minor rebound failed to recover 2,520, showing that buyers are exhausted and the bears are likely to dominate the market.
As for future moves, the price has tested the averages multiple times during the day but failed to reclaim them, so tonight may see a continued decline, possibly moving straight down to test the lower bound of the 4-hour range. Last night's scenario was a 15-minute dump followed by 15-minute consolidation. Since the first two moves were confirmed, the next move may be a 1-hour drop, potentially testing the MA200 around 77,200.
Keep an eye on the 78,800-78,400 zone below, as the structure may distort. No doubt the entrenched bulls will try to go long here, so a rebound is possible. But for us holding short as the counterparty, just stay out of it.
Positions of interest were tweaked slightly yesterday:
BTC above: 79,800, 80,800, 81,500
Below: 78,800, 77,200, 75,400
ETH above: 2,520, 2,548, 2,595
Below: 2,472, 2,445, 2,405, 2,368
My current stance remains the same: managing shorts.
Current average prices are predicted around 80,000 (BTC) and 2,520 (ETH). First watch the downside test; if it breaks, hold. If it rebounds, add to position. Set your own stop loss for adding to position.
You may consider adding or stopping at 80,850 or 2,545. For cautious players, add to a later position if entering here.
As for gold, the 1-hour and 4-hour EMA120 and EMA144 averages are clustered around 4,440, and the daily MA144 and EMA120 are around 4,370. They’re very close together, so it's likely they will be tested repeatedly in the near term. Personally, I’m betting on shorts. For short-term moves, check the 5-minute chart and manage as you see fit.
Currently, everyone's average price is around 4,420. Hold for now. Hold until after the night session and see what happens on Tuesday.
Alternatively, you can add at 4,445, stop at 4,470, one-way short. That’s it.
Cautiously, you can enter at 4,440, add shorts at 4,480 and 4,520.
Trade with your heart, intuition above all, let your mindset determine your environment—anything is possible. The market doesn’t have to go the way you want, but you can extract certainty from it according to your preferences. Out of countless possibilities, choose the one you want, and get what you want in the way you want it. That brings ultimate satisfaction.
The longer you stay and the more you see, the more possibilities you can spot. All market emotion and conflict is displayed in the process, and stepping on enough of them will make you more confident in your choices. Why care about others’ opinions when trading?
Being timid and overly cautious limits profit and growth for investors, and for industry traders, it fixes your ceiling. If you don’t break out of the infinite possibilities, you’ll achieve nothing all your life.
