Core Pickup Supply Accelerates Recovery! Ford (F.US) F-150’s Monthly Production Reaches Two-Year High, August New Car Sales Still Under Pressure

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Ford Motor (F.US) stated on Wednesday that following a fire at its aluminum supplier which severely impacted production of the F-Series pickup trucks, the company is continuing to increase output of this core model. It expects more pickups to be arriving at dealerships in the coming weeks and months. However, as supply gradually returns to normal, Ford’s U.S. market sales remain under pressure: new vehicle sales in August declined by 10.3% year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline.

Rob Kaffl, Ford’s U.S. Sales Director, said, "We are ramping up production. Over the next 30, 60, and 90 days, dealers will begin to see increased supply resulting from higher output. The number of vehicles en route and in our overall distribution system is currently at a healthy level.”

Data released by Ford on Wednesday showed that production of the F-Series pickups, including the F-150 and other large models, has increased month by month this year and has now returned to near historical norms, with some months even exceeding historical levels. In August, Ford produced 57,504 F-150s, marking the highest single-month output in the past two years.

Kaffl noted that as production continues to recover, overall vehicle supply available to Ford dealers is gradually returning to normal levels.

The F-Series pickup is one of Ford’s most important product lines and a key driver of the company’s profitability. Over the past year, production of this core model was severely impacted by upstream supply chain incidents.

Ford’s aluminum supplier Novelis experienced two fires last year at a factory in New York State, which temporarily halted operations and directly affected F-Series pickup production. Ford expects this supply chain incident will result in about $1.5 billion in losses this year. To make up for lost production and meet backlog demand, Ford has been ramping up production levels this year, with some output already surpassing the same period last year.

Despite the rapid recovery in production, Ford dealers' current F-Series pickup inventory remains below normal levels. Dealers now have about a 40-day supply, only about half of what is typically considered a healthy level in the auto industry.

Kaffl reiterated that at this stage Ford aims to increase F-Series inventory to 50 to 60 days, still below the more typical 75 to 90 days that the industry has maintained in the past. This means Ford is accelerating inventory replenishment but does not intend to simply return to the previous higher inventory levels. Instead, it hopes to better align production with actual market demand.

Kaffl said, "We are being very deliberate in ensuring that production matches demand." With increased output, Ford expects more F-Series pickups to arrive at U.S. dealerships in the coming months, supporting sales that had been constrained by prior supply shortages.

However, the recovery in F-Series production capacity has yet to translate into improvement in Ford’s overall sales performance.

Data released by Ford on Wednesday showed that its U.S. new vehicle sales in August declined by 10.3% year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline. F-Series pickup sales themselves have also not returned to last year’s levels. In the first eight months of this year, F-Series sales cumulatively fell by 10.9% year-over-year, with a year-over-year decline of 1.2% in August alone.

In addition to the previous F-Series supply shortfalls, Ford said this year’s year-over-year sales performance was affected by other factors as well.

Earlier this year, the company discontinued two models, which raised the comparative base against last year. At the same time, Ford also proactively reduced fleet sales to daily rental companies, which further weighed on overall sales.

Calendar factors also impacted August sales data. The U.S. Labor Day weekend has historically been a major promotional period for auto sales, but this year Labor Day was in September, while last year it fell in August. This means last August benefited from extra holiday sales, making year-over-year comparisons this year more challenging.

Ford’s sales slowdown is not an isolated phenomenon; overall demand in the U.S. auto market is also cooling. The company estimates that industry-wide new vehicle sales in the U.S. fell by about 6% year-over-year in August.

In the context of weakening industry demand, Ford on one hand needs to ramp up F-Series production to compensate for earlier capacity losses due to supply chain incidents, and on the other hand must avoid overproduction should market demand continue to slow, which could lead to a buildup of excess inventory.

This is also a key reason Ford is targeting an F-Series inventory of 50 to 60 days, instead of restoring it to the prior 75 to 90 days level.

For Ford, the key in the coming months will be whether restoration of F-Series supply can help improve sales performance. While August F-150 production has reached a two-year high—indicating supply constraints on this core product line are easing—given that Ford’s U.S. sales have now declined for eight consecutive months, and overall industry demand is cooling, how much this production recovery can be converted into sales growth remains to be seen.