Survey: Nearly 60% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 1.25% in September

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智通财经2026/08/25 22:16

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The latest survey shows that economists’ expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September have risen sharply. Nearly 60% of the surveyed economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its monetary policy meeting on September 17-18, compared to only 5% in the previous survey. Market pricing indicates even higher odds of a rate hike, approaching 80%.
The survey also shows that more than half of the economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to at least 1.50% in the first quarter of 2027, compared to 1.25% in the previous survey. Earlier surveys indicated that 70% of economists expected the Bank of Japan to hike rates to at least 1.50% in the second quarter of 2027.
Regarding the persistent pressure on the yen, nearly 90% of economists believe that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal policies have put downward pressure on the yen.
In the assessment of the effectiveness of the joint foreign exchange intervention between Japan and the US in July, nearly 70% of economists consider the joint intervention to be "ineffective" or "completely ineffective." After the intervention, the yen has already given up nearly half of its gains within two weeks.

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Survey: Nearly 60% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 1.25% in September

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