The pressure on the US Treasury supply-demand structure is shifting to the long end, and the strategic premium from the supply-demand gap is boosting copper prices, while several Southeast Asian countries are experiencing expanded trade deficits — 0817 Macro Overview

The risk of US fiscal sustainability remains difficult to rein in. Expansionary policies such as the TCJA, pandemic relief programs, and the Inflation Reduction Act continue to push up US Treasury supply, while tariff refunds, the US-Iran conflict, and AI development further intensify supply pressures. On the demand side, the decline in major stable buyers—foreign official institutions and the Federal Reserve—continues. Demand for longer-term debt faces higher pressure, while the short end may ease with macroeconomic adjustments.