British Pound: BoE hawks get support from UK data – Rabobank

Rabobank strategist Elwin de Groot observes that stronger-than-expected UK GDP has provided fresh ammunition to Bank of England (BoE) hawks, even as the Bank remains reluctant to tighten further. Growth was broad-based, with investment and GDP per capita both rising. Rabobank's UK strategist Stefan Koopman warns that Britain often posts strong first halves followed by weaker second halves, making 2026’s pattern a key question.

Robust GDP challenges BoE caution

"Even in the UK, where the Bank of England remains reluctant to tighten further, yesterday's stronger-than-expected GDP data provided ammunition for the hawks."

"Growth was broad-based, investment contributed positively and GDP per capita rose by a healthy 0.4% q/q."

"As our UK strategist Stefan Koopman notes, however, caution is warranted."

"Britain has developed a habit of strong first halves followed by disappointing second halves."

"The key question is whether 2026 finally breaks that pattern."