The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepens further, mortgage spreads strengthen against the trend, and geopolitical remarks together with retail data stir up Friday's close

智通财经2026/08/14 12:36

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On Friday, US mortgage-backed securities spreads performed relatively strongly, while the Treasury market showed a bear steepening trend. In the context of light overnight trading volumes, the yield curve steepened further. Index futures pointed to mixed openings.
Geopolitical rhetoric has heated up again. The US Treasury Secretary and Secretary of Defense issued tough statements, warning of unprecedented economic isolation measures against a certain country. Meanwhile, two Abu Dhabi National Oil Company ships were attacked, with mounting tensions in the Middle East and increased navigation risk in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to support energy prices.
According to institutional reports, the Bank of Japan may raise rates as soon as September, and could subsequently adopt a more aggressive tightening pace. The probability of a rate hike has surged to around 70% from late June levels. This shift in expectations indirectly affects sentiment in the global bond market.
In terms of data schedule, Friday evening will see a slew of releases including US retail sales, business inventories, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The market expects retail sales to grow moderately month-on-month, while the consumer confidence index may retreat slightly. Inflation expectation components will be an important reference for investors assessing the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Next week is packed with macro events, including the Federal Open Market Committee July meeting minutes, multiple sets of housing and manufacturing data, as well as preliminary readings of the August Purchasing Managers’ Index. Added to these are the auctions for 20-year Treasuries and 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which may lead to further volatility in the bond market.
Currently, the spreads between the 2-year and 10-year, and 10-year and 30-year yields have both widened. The US Dollar Index has weakened slightly due to tempered rate hike expectations, while crude oil futures continue their upward move. Overall, geopolitical risk premiums and the repricing of monetary policy paths are jointly shaping the marginal direction of cross-asset allocation.

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