Gold price rally halts, celebrations end! How much more can it rise this year?

　　Source: Jintou Web

　　On Thursday (August 13), during the Asian trading session, spot gold came under selling pressure and the upward trend "stalled." New York gold futures lost the $4,450/oz level. In early trading, gold prices surged strongly, approaching the psychological barrier of $4,450/oz. However, the rapid short-term rise led to significant profit-taking, causing gold prices to reverse downward in a pattern of rising and falling. The market is now awaiting tonight's release of the U.S. July PPI (Producer Price Index) and initial jobless claims, which will be key indicators to further confirm inflation resilience and are expected to trigger a new round of volatility.

　　【News Flash】

　　The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has released its latest survey, showing that spot gold is expected to trade around or above $4,500/oz by the end of 2026. In July, LBMA surveyed 16 professional analysts when gold prices repeatedly fell below $4,000/oz; however, respondents' year-end average forecasts were still over 12% higher than the price at that time.

　　The survey indicates that analysts' highest forecast for gold prices at the end of 2026 is $5,100/oz, offering about 15% upside potential compared to current levels; the lowest forecast is $3,879/oz, which is $100 below the low point set in July 2026. LBMA noted that market expectations for gold have gradually aligned with actual performance over the first seven months of the year.

　　LBMA stated that it currently expects the annual average price of gold in 2026 to be $4,604/oz; forecasts for the high in the second half of the year range from $4,872 to $5,800, while the lowest price prediction from respondents is $3,450/oz. The institution also pointed out that the average gold price for the first seven months of July was $4,595.75/oz, $135 lower than the result of the January survey by LBMA with 28 professional analysts.

　　【Spot Gold Market Analysis】

　　Gold's daily candlestick chart currently shows prices continuing to oscillate at high levels along short-term moving averages, leaning towards a relatively strong trend. In the short term, keep an eye on resistance around $4,490-$4,500. On the 4-hour chart, prices are starting to break through previous aligned resistance, and short-term moving averages are still trending higher, maintaining a strong bias; watch for a possible second upward move after a pullback confirmation. On smaller timeframes, after consecutive fast moves to the upside, prices are temporarily consolidating in a narrow range, and short-term moving averages are flattening after previously diverging upwards, so some adjustment may occur in the near term.

　　Overnight, the U.S. July CPI data met market expectations; rate cut expectations rose slightly, pushing gold prices higher. After hitting a phase high, many long positions took profits and exited. During the day, the market is in a data digestion window; next, keep an eye on the U.S. PPI data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The price is repeatedly oscillating at high levels, so it is not advisable to chase rises or sell on dips.

　　The daily chart shows gold retreating after reaching higher levels, leaving an upper shadow on the candlestick. Gold prices still hold above key moving averages; the mid-term bullish trend remains intact, but short-term overbought conditions are clear, and upward momentum is significantly weakening. The short-term pivot point is $4,400—holding above this level could allow re-testing of upper targets; sustained pressure below this area would increase adjustment space.

　　The 4-hour chart shows gold surging and then falling back, with indicators gradually declining from overbought levels. The divergence between bulls and bears is widening, and in the short term, high-level range oscillation is expected while awaiting new catalysts.

Editor: Zhu He Nan