Oil prices face slight pressure amid downward demand expectations and significant inventory increase
智通财经2026/08/13 02:26- On Thursday, international oil prices declined, with Brent crude futures dropping as much as 0.79% from Wednesday's closing price to $87.66; WTI crude futures once fell to $81.90 per barrel. Oil prices came under pressure mainly due to a downward revision in global oil demand expectations and a surprisingly large increase in US commercial crude inventories.
- On the demand side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly report. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that this year, global oil demand will decrease by 1.6 million barrels per day—an even larger drop than last month's forecast—mainly due to the Israel-US and Iran conflict, which has led to constrained fuel supply and rising prices, thereby dampening consumption.
- The supply side is also weighing on oil prices. US Energy Information Administration data shows that, for the week ending August 7, US crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 17.4 million barrels—the largest weekly increase since January 2023—far exceeding market expectations of a 1.4 million barrel decrease, with inventories reaching the highest level since June 5. The surge in inventories is mainly due to a steep decline in exports.
- However, geopolitical risks continue to provide a floor for oil prices. Senior Iranian sources stated that negotiations between the US and Iran on resuming the June interim agreement have made no progress. Recently, incidents of commercial vessels being attacked in both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb highlight that regional oil supply risks remain. Analysts note that deteriorating maritime security is forcing ships to turn off their signals, reducing shipping transparency and making it more difficult for the market to track and assess actual supply levels.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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