Has Lithium Carbonate Reached the Bottom? Outlook for the Second Half of 2026 and 2027: What Is the Market Expecting?

In July 2026, the lithium carbonate market experienced a textbook tug-of-war between "strong reality vs. weak expectations"—on one side, concentrated maintenance at lithium salt plants resulted in a supply contraction of over 5,000 tons and social inventories were reduced for eight consecutive weeks; on the other side, expectations of loosening supply due to Zimbabwean ore arriving in bulk in August and the imminent resumption of production at Jianxiawo continued to suppress prices. The leading futures contract retreated from the mid-May high of 209,900 yuan/ton to the early August low of 135,600 yuan/ton, a decline of more than 35%.

The core variable in the second half of the year does not lie on the demand side (the peak season is already clear), but rather in three supply-side timing differences: the actual arrival rhythm of Zimbabwean ore, the ramp-up speed at Jianxiawo, and the offsetting effect between seasonal increases in salt lake output and reduced output from spodumene maintenance.