The US dollar continues to decline as the Federal Reserve meeting raises doubts; yen intervention may only be a short-term factor.
智通财经2026/08/03 12:11Show original
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- On Monday, the US dollar continued to weaken. The immediate trigger was the joint intervention by the US and Japan in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, but the more fundamental turning point was last week's Federal Reserve meeting—the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, sparking doubts in the market about the new chair Walsh's ability to fight inflation.
- ING strategists pointed out that previously, the market held substantial long positions in the US dollar, and the Fed meeting triggered a wave of closing these positions. At the same time, there is a view that, in order to avoid further suppressing the dollar, the US Treasury might use euros rather than dollars to finance purchases for the yen.
- Strategists generally believe that Japan's intervention is only a temporary measure, and the long-term trend of the US dollar still depends on Federal Reserve policy. Jefferies strategists warn that if oil prices do not drop significantly, a passive response to inflation by the Fed will damage Walsh's credibility, and fundamentals still favor the dollar, indicating continued pressure for Fed rate hikes.
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