Four consecutive weeks of declines after IPO, 1.2 billion unlocked shares weighing down—can SpaceX's first quarterly report save its stock price?
SpaceX will release its first quarterly report since going public on August 4. Although its stock price has fallen 46% from its peak and faces selling pressure from the unlocking of over 1.2 billion shares, the market is focused on the revenue flexibility from AI data center leasing, the growth in Starlink subscription users, and progress on the 14th Starship test flight. Wall Street estimates second-quarter revenue at around $6.9 billion, and this financial report is seen as a key factor in whether the stock price trend can be reversed.
SpaceX is about to release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, marking a crucial test for the market.
SpaceX will announce its second-quarter results after the close of trading on Wednesday, August 4, Eastern Time. As of the market open this Monday, its share price has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling about 20% from its IPO price of $135, and plummeting a total of 46% from its all-time closing high of $201.80 on June 16.
Colin Canfield, analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, noted in a preview report that “initial quarter earnings expectations may show extreme deviations,” implying that there is virtually no clarity regarding the direction of the results.
Meanwhile, the pressure from the release of locked shares is looming over the stock price. Approximately 912 million shares will be approved for public trading on August 6, with another roughly 319 million shares to be unlocked about a week later. This means that the potential selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored, and the market’s focus will be on the stock’s reaction on Thursday and Friday—a strong earnings report may well be the only catalyst to break the streak of declines.
Tremendous AI Revenue Potential but Highest Uncertainty
SpaceX's earnings report is divided into three main business segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Among them, the AI segment is the biggest suspense this quarter.
The core asset of the AI business is xAI—SpaceX completed its merger with xAI in February this year. xAI currently operates two land-based data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business achieved $818 million in revenue, but recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion and capital expenditures as high as $7.7 billion during the same period.
In the second quarter, there are important variables on the revenue side. SpaceX has signed AI data center leasing agreements with Anthropic and Google, with the agreement with Anthropic reaching as much as $1.25 billion per month, and gradually ramping up between May and June; the Google agreement has not yet started. This means the actual revenue from the AI business this season is highly flexible, and both the profit margin trend and the pace of additional capital expenditures are equally hard to forecast.
The guidance investors are most anticipating includes: the company's outlook for the AI business in the second half of this year and in 2027, as well as the timetable for the concept of using Starship to send low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit.
Starlink: User Growth Is the Core Metric
The connectivity business, Starlink, is SpaceX’s most robust profit engine. By the end of the first quarter, Starlink's subscriber count had reached 10.3 million, more than double the 5 million from a year earlier; the unit achieved $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit during the quarter.
In this quarter's earnings report, user growth data will be the focus of market attention. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) metrics, as well as the backlog of contracts for its enterprise and government businesses—data that will help investors assess the depth of Starlink's commercialization and its future growth potential.
Space Business: Starship Progress Under the Spotlight
The Space segment carries SpaceX’s core technical narrative. In the first quarter, this segment achieved $4.1 billion in revenue, an operating loss of $657 million, and $1.1 billion in newly added plant and equipment capital expenditures. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 launched approximately 36 times, mostly in service of its own Starlink constellation; such launches are not counted towards the Space segment’s revenue.
Progress on Starship is also closely watched. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test. Investors will be looking for updates on the timing of the 14th test, as well as the scale of continued investment in this rocket—Starship is a key vehicle for future commercial payload launches and the deployment of AI satellites.
Earnings Expectations and Market Outlook
Wall Street currently expects SpaceX’s second-quarter total revenue to be around $6.9 billion, with EBITDA of about $2.1 billion; full-year revenue is forecast at $39 billion, and EBITDA at $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield takes a relatively optimistic view this quarter, expecting results to beat expectations and be accompanied by positive guidance.
However, these forecasts are of questionable reference value. As this is SpaceX’s first quarterly report since going public, analysts have no historical data for calibration, and actual figures may deviate significantly.
The share price trajectory is equally uncertain. Supply pressure from unlocked shares, concerns about Elon Musk’s divided attention, and the debate over valuation—with the current market cap of about $1.4 trillion corresponding to roughly 35 times estimated 2026 revenue—all remain key factors affecting the market’s reaction to the earnings report. For investors, this weekend could turn out to be highly turbulent.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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