The AI race among tech giants enters a "divergent phase": Microsoft (MSFT.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Google (GOOGL.US) attract market attention, while Meta (META.US) faces investor skepticism.

According to Jinse Finance, as US tech giants continue to release their financial reports and maintain or raise capital expenditure guidance, Wall Street is accelerating its reassessment of the winners and losers in the AI race. Although major tech firms are still increasing their AI investments, investors are no longer simply accepting the "burning cash" logic, but are instead focusing on whether these AI investments can translate into actual returns, resulting in a clear divergence in share price performances among different companies.

Data shows that so far in this round of earnings season, the total market value fluctuation of six tech giants with published results is close to 2 trillion dollars. Among them, Microsoft (MSFT.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Google parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US) have won market recognition through robust growth in their cloud businesses. This week, Microsoft's market cap increased by over 600 billion dollars, while both Amazon's and Alphabet's market caps rose by more than 400 billion dollars, reflecting investors' belief that their continued multi-billion dollar AI investments are starting to bring returns.

In contrast, after Meta (META.US) released its earnings, its share price fell sharply, with its market cap evaporating by about 85 billion dollars this week. The company further raised the lower limit of its capital expenditure forecast, but management failed to adequately explain AI infrastructure demand and future monetization paths, resulting in doubts about its AI investment strategy. Apple (AAPL.US) saw its performance guidance dragged down by a shortage in storage chip supply. Although its quarterly revenue, profit, and iPhone sales all exceeded market expectations, its guidance for quarterly revenue growth was only 9% to 11%, lower than the expected 12%. On Friday, its share price closed down more than 7%, with its market cap shrinking by over 350 billion dollars. Tesla (TSLA.US) saw its market cap decrease by about 7 billion dollars, as its free cash flow turned negative and it expects further increases in capital expenditure.

Jason Greenberg, co-head of Jefferies Global Technology, Media, and Telecom Investment Banking, said that over the next 12 months, the scale of AI capital expenditure by US tech giants is heading towards nearly 800 billion dollars. Investors now no longer question whether the demand for AI applications or computing power is real; the real focus is whether these massive investments can bring sufficient and considerable profit returns in the future.

As one of the most outstanding companies this earnings season, Amazon's cloud business AWS saw its second quarter revenue grow by 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth rate since 2021, fully reflecting strong demand for AI cloud services among enterprises. At the same time, the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from 200 billion dollars to 220 billion dollars to further expand AI infrastructure construction. Boosted by this, Amazon's share price surged more than 15% on Friday.

Forrester analyst Tracy Woo said AWS's strong growth clearly shows that Amazon's previous sustained infrastructure investments are meeting market demand, rather than overshooting into the future.

Meanwhile, Meta has become another focal point for the market. The company not only raised its capital expenditure forecast, but is also pushing forward with multiple initiatives in AI, smart glasses, in-house chips, and data centers. However, CEO Mark Zuckerberg failed to fully explain AI infrastructure demand and commercialization progress during the earnings call, raising concerns among investors.

Gabelli fund manager Hendi Susanto said the market's patience with Meta is waning. Although Zuckerberg said the company is actively exploring AI commercialization paths, investors ultimately reacted negatively due to the lack of clear data and validation.

Analysts believe this earnings season shows that the market is actively selecting the genuine beneficiaries in the AI race. Going forward, capital markets will pay more attention to the return on AI investment by tech giants, not just the scale of capital expenditure itself.