EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Euro holds above 183.75 with bearish pressure mounting
The Euro (EUR) accelerated its decline against a strong Japanese Yen (JPY), which has rallied across the board on Thursday, without any clear reason to explain the move. The EUR/JPY pair has found support at the 183.75 area, after a knee-jerk reaction from Tuesday’s highs at 185.86, with momentum indicators on intraday charts showing strong bearish momentum.
The Yen saw a sudden spike during Thursday’s early European session, which raised speculation that Japanese authorities stepped in to support the JPY, which had fallen to 40-year lows against the US Dollar earlier this week. Yen’s unexpected recovery has put investors on edge, fearing further interventions on Friday, as the lower trading volumes amid the July 4 holiday in the US might provide an optimal chance to optimise the impact of these actions.
Asked about the Yen's move, both the Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, have declined to make any comment. Japan has never confirmed any earlier interventions.
Technical Analysis: Euro seems to have significant support at 183.75
EUR/JPY trades at 184.17, after bouncing from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late-June rally. Momentum indicators, however, highlight a strong bearish bias, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 37, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in negative territory.
On the topside, the 61.8% retracement of the mentioned bullish cycle, at the 184.20 area, is keeping bulls in check so far, closing the path towartds the previous support area between 184.65 and 184.85 (June 30, July 1 lows) and the two-week high, at 185.86 hit on Tuesday.
On the downside, a further decline below session lows at the 183.75 area would expose the 24 June low at 183.17. Below here, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level, at 182.45, seems a plausible target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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