Caitong Futures: Ferrous metals show divergent consolidation, with coking coal exhibiting proactive strength among bulls

⑴ Steel: Low-level oscillation, valuation moving downward. Construction steel demand continues to decline, steel export orders are average, while hot metal output remains high; with strong supply and weak demand, the contradiction between supply and demand for steel is gradually accumulating. There is little change in positions among the top twenty seats for the October rebar and coil contracts. Technically, the October rebar contract lacks upward momentum, with an overall decrease in positions and a close lower. In the short term, the resistance above is near the 20-day moving average, and support below should be monitored around the 3140 level. The market valuation is below both the East China independent electric furnace valley power cost and the long-process rebar cost, indicating valuation is not high. In the short term, the market is caught between cost support and intensified supply-demand contradictions, so the upward and downward space may be limited.⑵ Iron Ore: Valuation moving downward. On the supply side, arrivals at ports remain high, and with the end of the Australian fiscal year approaching in June, there are expectations of a shipment surge; on the demand side, hot metal output remains high and provides support. Technically, the September contract is constrained by the 40-day moving average and may test the support between the 750 to 765 levels; in terms of capital, both long and short positions among the top twenty seats are reduced with similar magnitude. Weaker downstream steel demand offers limited support for raw materials, and the high supply pressure in June is about to materialize, so iron ore valuations may move downward in the short term. However, unless hot metal output drops significantly, the downside space is limited.⑶ Coking Coal: Fluctuating with a strong bias. Supply at production sites is in recovery, safety supervision in Shanxi is tightening, and for some coal mines, even after resumption, output is still below pre-production suspension levels, so overall supply remains tight. Downstream buying is active and prices are mainly rising. The top twenty seats see increases in both long and short positions, with a slightly larger increase in long positions; open interest thus shows a slight bullish bias. Technically, the September coking coal contract shows a pattern of “increasing positions on rises, decreasing on falls”, with bulls currently having the initiative. In the short term, watch resistance at the 1400 key level above, and support has moved up to around the 1355 level below. Ongoing tight supply, combined with June's safety production month, means spot-driven strength continues in the short term. However, as steel demand is weak, investors should beware of profit-taking and volatility risks, and maintain a multi-position approach along the industrial chain without chasing high prices.⑷ Coke: Beware of profit-taking after bullish moves. Rising raw material prices have pushed up spot costs for coke producers, forcing some enterprises to cut production, leading to marginal declines in coke output. Hot metal production remains steadily high, providing strong rigid demand; coke producers continue to seek price increases. The fifth price increase round has taken effect, and the market expects a possible sixth round (equivalent to a warehouse receipt cost of 1,980 yuan/ton). At present, the market has partially priced in six increases, so beware of volatility risk.⑸ Silico-Manganese: Oscillating. Manganese ore shipments have rebounded, port inventories continue to decline, and plant operations have slightly increased but remain low, with a pronounced tendency for buyers to pressure prices; overall supply and demand remains weak and stable. Technically, the September silico-manganese contract closed higher amid oscillation; monitor the range breakout between 6,000 and 6,120. On the capital side, both long and short positions among the top twenty seats have increased, with a higher rise in short positions, and overall open interest is slightly bearish.