The outlook for a ceasefire agreement in Iran remains uncertain; U.S. wheat and corn are under pressure, while soybean oil demand supports soybean strength.

⑴ Chicago wheat and corn futures fell on Friday, while soybean futures rose as the market assessed the impact of a potential new round of ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran on the agricultural products market. ⑵ Crude oil futures have recently been a major influencing factor for the grain market, and fell after news emerged of a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement. The market expects that any peace deal would lead to a sharp drop in commodity prices. ⑶ Institutional commodity risk managers said that wheat, corn, and soybeans showed divergent trends today, with the market interpreting the specific implications of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Technically, a ceasefire situation has persisted since April. ⑷ The weather in the US Midwest continues to be favorable, with some necessary high temperatures, which has put pressure on wheat prices. However, US corn and soybean crops will soon require rainfall. Soybeans continue to trend slightly higher as demand for soybean oil remains strong under the US biofuel blending mandate, cash supplies are tight, and crushing profits are at a record high. ⑸ The upcoming harvest in the Northern Hemisphere has limited the gains in wheat, despite US crops suffering from drought. Many other countries, however, are seeing good harvests. Traders say China may begin purchasing US soybeans and agricultural products under a new trade agreement. ⑹ Russia’s Agriculture Minister stated that Russia expects a good grain harvest in 2026, signaling increased export competition pressure on the US and other supplier countries.