ROLL fluctuates 155% within 24 hours: Low liquidity triggers extreme price swings

Behind the S&P 500's record high, only 30% of its constituent stocks are above their 50-day moving average, marking the narrowest market breadth at a record high since 1990. The Russell 2000 has fallen for five consecutive weeks, and high-yield bond yields have soared to 15%. Societe Generale warns that if US Treasury yields rise to 6% and oil prices reach $150, the S&P 500 could fall by more than 20% next year. In addition, some top-performing fund managers have completely exited AI stocks in favor of energy, stating that once financing dries up, it will be "game over."

The freight for a single barrel of crude oil has soared to $41, approaching half the oil price, and for a single trip, the freight was once enough to buy an oil tanker. The Middle East crisis has led to a structural shortage of shipping capacity in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with ship-to-ship transfers extending turnaround times. VLCC freight rates have skyrocketed from an annual average of $9.2 million to $77 million—an increase of more than eight times. Refiners’ profits are being rapidly eroded, the average price of second-hand oil tankers has reached a historic high, and, unusually, surpassed the price of new vessels.

The logic of AI and solar energy demand continues to play out, yet prices are falling against the trend—macroeconomic forces such as a strengthening US dollar and rising real interest rates have completely suppressed fundamentals. Speculative funds offloaded $1.6 billion in a single week, marking a yearly peak, while CTA net short positions reversed by $2.6 billion to the highest level this year. However, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the extreme short positioning itself is building reversal momentum, highlighting an asymmetry; once macro headwinds subside, a retaliatory rebound could be easily triggered. After a similar shakeout last time, silver surged 15% in six weeks.