The Iran war led to the first platinum surplus in six quarters for the period January to March, the World Platinum Investment Council said, as investment demand fell and high energy prices have made rises in inflation and interest rates more likely.
After surging 127% in 2025, spot platinum hit a record high of $2,919 per troy ounce in January.
It then fell to about $2,000 as the gold-led rally lost momentum and the outbreak of the Middle Eastern conflict at the end of February led investors, seeking liquidity for margin calls, to sell precious metals.
In the first quarter, the platinum market recorded a 268,000-ounce surplus compared with a 658,000 deficit in the same period of 2025. Demand fell by 31% year-on-year to 1.5 million ounces with 225,000 ounces of net investment outflows as well as weaker auto and jewellery consumption.
At the same time, total supply jumped by 18% to 1.7 million ounces, receiving a boost compared with a year ago when flooding in South Africa reduced supplies in 2025.
Mine supply rose by 22%, while high prices led to a 7% increase in recycling, the WPIC, which uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, said in a quarterly report.
With these trends expected to reverse, the platinum market is still on track for its fourth year of consecutive deficit in 2026, the WPIC said, raising the full-year shortage estimate to 297,000 ounces from the 240,000 it had expected two months ago.
For the full year 2026, the WPIC expects mine output to be steady and recycling to rise by 9%, resulting in overall supply increasing by 2% to 7.4 million ounces.
Demand is forecast to fall by 9% to 7.7 million ounces led by 12% and 54% declines in jewellery and investment demand, while automotive demand falls by 2%.
To cover the deficit, above-ground stocks – unallocated vaulted inventory available to balance the market – will fall by 15% to 1.7 million ounces and will be equal to less than three months of global demand.
(By Polina Devitt; Editing by Barbara Lewis)
