During the US-Iran conflict, Polymarket's trading volume surged, with over $100 million in related transactions on January 4th.

BlockBeats News, April 23rd - According to

, amidst heightened uncertainty following Trump's policy on the Iran war and his social media statements, the prediction market platform saw a surge in trading volume. Data from Dune shows that from April 5th (Sunday) to April 8th (one day after Trump announced a ceasefire), there were 4.13 billion trades related to the Iran war, totaling over $1 billion.

The report highlights that on April 8th, more than 100,000 trades were conducted on Polymarket regarding the event "Is Trump likely to send troops to Iran," making it the highest daily trading volume of the year at that time. Prior to this, after Trump's post on Truth Social on April 5th demanding Iran to "open that damn strait," there was a significant increase in trading volume on Polymarket about the possibility of an invasion. Following his insinuation on April 7th that "tonight will see the end of an entire civilization," the event "Will there be a ceasefire" replaced the previous topic as the event with the highest trading volume. Dune referred to Trump as an "unpredictable machine" and marveled at how his "Twitter governance" style boosted trading volume.

Prediction markets have faced criticism from both parties for allegedly facilitating insider trading, but Trump seems to be very supportive. He has adopted a light-touch regulatory approach and assisted in the industry's expansion. Reportedly, Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., holds shares in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to Kalshi. Polymarket is currently valued at $9.6 billion, nearly ten times higher than its valuation in the latest round of investment when Trump Jr. was part of the venture capital fund eight months ago. The Trump family's Trump Organization is planning to launch its own prediction market platform, Truth Predict.

Andrew Surabian, a spokesperson for Trump Jr., responded to the related inquiries by saying, "Don's involvement as an investor or advisor in any company has no contact with the federal government and has no influence or involvement in the government's policies regarding prediction markets." Polymarket did not respond to media requests for comments. Furthermore, the probability on Polymarket of "Will Trump be impeached before the end of his term" has risen from 13% at the beginning of the year to 66% this Tuesday.