ESIM (Depinsim) fluctuated by 41.4% within 24 hours: Dominated by volatility in low liquidity markets, with no clear 24h catalyst

Goldman Sachs still regards a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, but the market prices in the probability of a hike at about 90%, and the difficulty of fully pricing in a 25 basis point increase is rising. Meanwhile, AI capital expenditure in 2027 is expected to reach $1.6 trillion, debt financing needs and energy inflation risks remain, and AI-related credit spreads have widened to their largest levels of the year. The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields continues to be pulled by both bullish and bearish forces.

Barclays believes that AI giants competing to secure early financing have created a "prisoner's dilemma," and collective bond issuance will drive up financing costs, restricting the narrowing of credit spreads. As risks associated with lower-rated bonds increase and credit differentiation among AI issuers intensifies, whether the supply of financing can be absorbed by the market will become the key factor in determining if AI-related trading can stabilize.

Hedge funds have deleveraged in 7 out of the past 8 trading days, with net leverage dropping to a one-year low. Goldman Sachs strategist Louis Miller believes that the decline in momentum exposure, sharp corrections in stock prices, and stable earnings expectations for leading AI companies have created buying opportunities for certain assets. However, Pasquariello admits to having "limited conviction" regarding market direction, as the returns on capital expenditures remain uncertain. Goldman Sachs recommends a selective layout in AI.