Huge profits! With accurate predictions on the oil price surge, the "God of Oil Trading" fund skyrocketed by 31.1%

The fund managed by the renowned commodities trader Pierre Andurand, known as the "God of Crude Trading," surged 31.1% in the first quarter of this year, mainly benefiting from his successful bet on the scale of crude oil supply shocks driven by the Middle East conflict, thus reversing last year's heavy losses.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated in the latest client report: "Unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, the risk that oil prices will rise to levels destructive to demand cannot be ruled out."

According to a person familiar with the matter, the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced Fund fell by 4% in January, rose by 4.6% in February, and soared by 30.6% in March. #IranCrisisTracker#

The strong performance in March roughly matched the nearly 60% surge in global crude oil benchmark Brent. According to a Reuters survey of analysts, the market now expects Brent crude's average price in 2026 to reach $82.85 per barrel, 30% higher than pre-war forecasts.

For this fund manager, known for bold directional trading, this performance marks a significant turnaround. His fund lost about 40% in 2025 due to bullish oil price forecasts that did not materialize that year. Andurand became widely known in the market for his accurate predictions of the oil price spike in 2008 and the collapse in 2020. In 2024, he closed his long crude oil positions, then re-entered the market to seize this historically significant supply disruption trading opportunity.

Supply shocks boost oil price expectations, market eyes historical highs

The month-long conflict has effectively rendered the Strait of Hormuz closed, and this strait is one of the most critical chokepoints in the global energy supply chain, handling about 20% of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas transportation.

According to a Reuters survey of 38 analysts, in this context, the market expects OPEC+ supply to drop by up to 11 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year.

Some strategists even believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, international oil prices could retest the record high of $147 per barrel set in 2008.

John Paisie, President of Stratas Advisors, said: "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month with no sign of resolution, Brent crude prices will head towards $190 per barrel."

The market focus remains on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen

Currently, the core variable in oil market trading is very clear: whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened soon.

If this critical waterway cannot be reopened promptly, the global energy supply shortage will intensify further, and oil prices may not only continue to rise but also enter levels high enough to suppress end-user demand. For fund managers, energy traders, and global macro investors, this means the Middle East situation will remain the decisive factor influencing crude oil price trends for some time to come.

Judging from the first quarter performance of the Andurand Fund, the market's revaluation of supply disruption risks has already brought substantial returns to investors skilled in trend trading; and for the broader market, the inflation, growth, and policy risks implied by this round of oil price increases may only just be starting to be fully priced in.