Viewpoint: Quantum Computing Will Not Break Bitcoin by 2026, But Preparation Is Needed

BlockBeats News, December 25th, according to Cointelegraph, experts from Argentum AI, Coin Bureau, and other institutions stated in interviews that the 2026 threat of quantum computing to cryptocurrency is still in the theoretical stage rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, Head of AI at Argentum AI, stated that the commercial application of quantum computing in 2026 is expected to be extremely limited. Nic Puckrin, Co-Founder of Coin Bureau, stated that 90% of the quantum threat theory is for marketing purposes, and it will be at least another decade before a computer capable of breaking existing cryptography appears.

Nevertheless, experts pointed out potential risks to the public key cryptography relied upon by blockchain networks like Bitcoin. Sofiia Kireieva, an expert from Boosty Labs, pointed out that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used for private and public keys is the weakest link, while the SHA-256 hash function has lower vulnerability. Ahmad Shadid, Founder of O Foundation, stated that address reuse significantly increases the risk of being hacked.

Currently, about 25% to 30% of BTC (around 4 million coins) is stored in addresses where the public key has been exposed, making these addresses more susceptible to attacks by quantum computers. Sean Ren, Co-Founder of Sahara AI, warned that the real threat in 2026 is not a system crash but attackers collecting as much encrypted data as possible to decrypt it when the technology matures in the future. Leo Fan, Co-Founder of Cysic, described this as a "collect first, decrypt later" attack scenario. To address the potential threat, the crypto community has taken action. Qastle announced in November plans to provide quantum-grade security protection for hot wallets by upgrading the underlying cryptography. Experts recommend users avoid address reuse and promptly move funds when quantum-resistant wallets become available. While there won't be a quantum doomsday in 2026, quantum computing will become an advanced risk factor in the field of crypto security.