Royal Bank of Canada: The Fed's latest dot plot is expected to indicate only two rate cuts in 2025

RBC Capital Markets stated that when US Federal Reserve officials update their quarterly dot plot forecast this week, they may suggest that interest rates will only be cut twice next year, compared to the expectation of four cuts in September. The median estimate of the Fed's September dot plot suggested a 100 basis point cut in 2024 and another 100 basis point cut in 2025. "Fed officials' speeches since the November meeting have almost locked in a 25 basis point rate cut," Blake Gwinn and Izaac Brook of RBC wrote in a report on Wednesday. "Therefore, the focus of this week's meeting will mainly be on the updated dot plot and Powell's speech."