Arthur Hayes self-assesses his market prediction accuracy at only 25%

Arthur Hayes recently revealed that his market prediction success rate is only 25%, with only 2 correct predictions out of 8 in the past year. He stated in a new article that despite poor short-term forecasting performance, he still maintains profitability by focusing on macroeconomic trends. In his blog, Hayes used a baseball analogy to describe the accuracy of his predictions, admitting that a "batting average of 25%" is very bad for ordinary people. His self-report covered key market forecasts from November 2023 to September 2024, including treasury bond issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price trends and central bank policies. Despite acknowledging challenges in short-term forecasting, Hayes reiterated his belief in the "super-cycle volatility" theory and believes this theory will support his long-term optimistic expectations for future markets.