US Initial Claims for last week, August Durable Goods Orders Monthly Rate and other data to be released soon
U.S. initial claims data last week, August durable goods orders monthly rate, the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter, real GDP and the final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index will be released after ten minutes.
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Crude oil is "coming back", but refined oil is "not coming back"; the global refining gap is widening.
According to Goldman Sachs, global refined oil exports have declined by about 6 million barrels per day year-on-year, with the Gulf region and Russia contributing three-quarters of the decrease. Unlike crude oil, which can be rerouted, damaged refineries cannot be relocated, and the Gulf region's refined oil exports have only recovered to 40% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs expects global refinery utilization rates to recover only by the second half of 2027; based on this, it has more than doubled its forecast for diesel profit margins in 2027.
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