Analysis on the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in August and September

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 22.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%.