Powell: not too confident about whether rates will be cut this year
Fed Chairman Powell: I don't have a lot of confidence that rates will be cut this year, and I don't know if inflation will fall enough to cut rates. There are ways to cut rates and ways not to cut rates.
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Historical data shows that a single rate hike is not enough to end a bull market; a full tightening cycle is the real threat.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has experienced 12 bear markets with declines of over 20% and 4 deep corrections ranging from 18% to 20%. Among them, six occurred directly after interest rate hikes that triggered economic recessions, while two other cases had no relation to either rate hikes or recessions. Goldman Sachs believes that the market has already priced in multiple rate hike expectations; Morgan Stanley warns that rising yields could trigger a market correction; JPMorgan is more focused on oil prices and corporate earnings.
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