Improved Market Sentiment Puts Pressure on the Dollar as Treasury Yields Fall
The US Dollar weakened against most major currencies early Friday as Treasury yields declined and investor sentiment improved. Comments from President Donald Trump about ongoing discussions with Iran eased some concerns about potential energy supply disruptions, although uncertainty remains.
US stock index futures rose between 0.1% and 0.6% during the European morning, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell approximately 0.5% to around $90 per barrel. The US Dollar Index moved toward 102.00 after recording marginal losses on Thursday.
The Australian Dollar was the strongest performer against the greenback, gaining 0.34%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which rose 0.25%. Investors are now awaiting the University of Michigan's October Consumer Sentiment Index for further insight into the US economic outlook.
Treasury Yields Fall as Fed Expectations Shift
According to Deutsche Bank, the 10-year US Treasury yield reached an intraday high of 5.35% before closing at 5.23%, down 5.7 basis points on the day.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said further interest rate increases may be necessary but do not need to occur at consecutive meetings. His comments encouraged a less aggressive interpretation of the potential policy path, contributing to the decline in yields.
Treasury yields and incoming economic data remain important drivers of the Dollar as investors assess the Federal Reserve's next steps.
USD/CAD Awaits Canadian Employment Data
USD/CAD traded above 1.4200 early Friday after falling approximately 0.25% on Thursday. Investors are watching Canada's September employment report, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 6.5% from 6.4% in August.
Stronger employment figures could support the Canadian Dollar, while weaker results may put it under pressure.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Remain Relatively Stable
EUR/USD recorded modest gains on Thursday following Wednesday's sharp decline, holding above 1.1200 early Friday despite struggling to build upward momentum.
GBP/USD remained above 1.3200 and traded almost unchanged over the week. Both pairs remain sensitive to changes in US interest rate expectations and upcoming economic data.
Gold Advances as Treasury Yields Decline
Gold extended its recovery after closing higher on Thursday, trading near $4,200 and gaining approximately 1.5% on the day.
Lower Treasury yields can make gold more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset. Dollar weakness may also support demand from international buyers.
USD/JPY Rises as Japanese Fiscal Plans Draw Attention
USD/JPY climbed approximately 0.3% to trade above 158.20 early Friday as the Yen weakened.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama announced plans for a government spending review initiative modelled on the US Department of Government Efficiency. The initiative aims to increase scrutiny of public spending and subsidies while identifying potential funding sources for government commitments.
What Could Drive Markets Next?
Markets are balancing improved sentiment against changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Friday's US consumer sentiment data and Canadian employment figures could influence currency movements, while Treasury yields remain central to the Dollar's direction.
Further changes in economic data, interest rate expectations or investor sentiment could shift the balance across currencies, gold and oil.
$XAUT

$GRVT According to the latest date from rwa.xyz, the number of wallets holding tokenized commodities has gone past 450K and now stands at 452,931. A year ago, this number was at around 126K. That is a 3.6x jump in holder count in twelve months and most of that growth took place in the last few weeks.
Between early August and today, 200,000 holders were added to the sector. In the ten months before that, it added only around 126,000. ParaFi estimated that holders of $PAXG and XAUT grew 65% across all of 2025. The past nine weeks alone saw a 79% growth across the wider sector.
It’s important to note here that holder counts track wallet addresses and hence does not show the number of unique people. One person can hold several wallets or several tokens. Nevertheless, even with this caveat, the trend is clear.
Tether Gold Pulls Ahead of Paxos Gold
Tether Gold (XAUT) had 12,233 holders a year ago and by August of this year, the number had grown to 74,544, which was still trailing Paxos Gold at the time. Fast forward to today, that figure is now at 143,973. That is nearly 12 times its count from last year and about 31,000 more that $PAXG, at the time of writing.
Below the two leaders comes Matrixdock Gold with 63,922 holders. Together, the top three account for about 71% of all wallets in the sector.
Tokenized ETFs and Stocks Are Behind the Newest Wave
Tokenized ETFs and stocks issued through xStocks, Robinhood, Ondo and STOx have accelerated the growth in recent weeks. These products had around 21,000 holders in early August and now are at 105,000. Their share of all holders grew from 8% to 23% today.
Gold xStock, for instance, has had a remarkable year with holder count growing over 53x from 780 to 41,569. Robinhood’s tokenized SPDR Gold Trust, United States Oil Fund and iShares Silver Trust have 40,713 holders combined. That matches the Robinhood chain’s total holder count exactly, which suggests almost all of the chain’s users hold one of these three tokens.
Oil, Silver and Copper Start to Show Up
Gold still accounts for about 90% of holders, but other commodities have grown quickly since the summer. Tokens tracking oil, silver, copper and rare earths now have roughly 42,000 holders combined.
Robinhood’s USO token alone has 15,211 holders. The Ondo and Robinhood versions of the iShares Silver Trust have about 18,900 between them. Ondo’s tokenized US Copper Index Fund grew from 26 holders in August to 2,371. In the summer, most of these products barely registered.
Ethereum Keeps the Capital While Users Spread to Other Chains
Ethereum holds $4.92 billion of the sector’s $5.16 billion distributed market cap, or about 95%. $BNB Chain is next at $85.1 million, followed closely by Arbitrum at $83.5 million.
The holder numbers look very different. Ethereum has 183,776 holders, about 41% of the total. $BNB Chain has 94,289, Plume has 62,157, Solana has 62,154 and Robinhood has 40,713.
Put the two sets of numbers side by side and the split is hard to miss. Wallets on Ethereum tend to hold large positions, while holdings on $BNB Chain, Solana and Robinhood skew much smaller and look more like retail accounts. Arbitrum is the exception among the smaller networks. It has only a few thousand holders, but its market cap sits almost level with $BNB Chain’s.
The large, long-term gold positions have stayed on Ethereum. New retail users are coming in through cheaper chains and brokerage-style tokens. As a result, the number of holders is growing much faster than capital is moving off Ethereum.
PBoC’s 21-Tonne Liquidity Injection: Decoding the Institutional Footprint in XAUT/USDT
$XAUT The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has executed a definitive institutional maneuver, adding 21 tonnes of gold in September the largest single-month accumulation since 2023.
This marks a 23rd consecutive month of buying, pushing total reserves to 2,196 tonnes.
While mainstream media attributes this to price dips, the professional lens recognizes this as a strategic Wyckoff Accumulation at the sovereign level.
With total central bank purchases hitting 170 tonnes YTD (led by China and Poland), the "smart money" is aggressively securing value in anticipation of fiat devaluation and geopolitical fragmentation.
The dip in FX reserves ($3.4T) is merely a currency translation illusion; the real move is the rotation from USD-denominated assets into hard money.
Technical Landscape: XAUT/USDT (15m, 1h, 4h)
Price is currently trading at $4,165.66**, up 0.56%, pressing against the **24h high of $4,168.54.
The SMC & Wyckoff Playbook:
· The Inducement & Liquidity Sweep: On the 4H and 1H charts, the recent dip to $4,076 (4H Support)** and **$4,106 (1H Support) served as a classic Inducement. This move trapped retail shorts and swept sell-side liquidity.
· Institutional Funding Candle: The aggressive rebound from the $4,106 zone on the 1H chart, accompanied by a volume spike (MA(5): 39.98), marks a clear Institutional Funding Candle. This confirms that limit orders were absorbed by major players.
· Mitigation & Breaker Blocks: The price has now mitigated the previous 4H supply zone at $4,183. The 15m chart shows a **Breaker Block** forming near $4,150, where old resistance is flipping into dynamic support.
· Discount vs. Premium: The current price sits in a Premium Zone relative to the 4H swing low ($4,076). The **Refined Order Block (ROB)** for a safe long entry lies in the **Discount Zone** between $4,130 and $4,147 (aligned with the 15m EMA(20) and BB LB).
· Rejection Block: The 4H resistance at **$4,183.04** is acting as a critical **Rejection Block**. A clean close above this level is required to invalidate bearish order flow and target the $4,246 region.
Risk Management & Execution:
· SMC Indicator: Watch the SAR (0.02, 0.2) on the 1H at $4,115.38; a break below this invalidates the immediate bullish bias.
· Strategy: Do not chase the premium. Wait for a pullback into the Refined Order Block (4,147–4,150) on the 15m.
· Stop Loss: Hard invalidation below $4,130 (below the 1H EMA 20).
· Take Profit: Primary TP at $4,183 (4H Resistance), secondary extension at $4,200.
The PBoC is providing the fundamental floor. The technicals suggest a re-accumulation phase. The bias remains bullish as long as price holds above the 1H SAR. Let the retail traders chase the green candle; the institution waits for the mitigation.
$XAUUSD