JPMorgan calculated a 10% annual return for BTC, but did not grant it entry into its investment portfolio.

Wall Street is starting to seriously calculate Bitcoin’s long-term returns, but there is still a risk threshold before truly including it in mainstream asset allocation.
On October 19, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, including Bitcoin in long-term return forecasts for the first time, projecting an approximately 10% annualized compound return under baseline scenarios over the next 10 to 15 years.
This forecast is higher than the report’s annualized return assumptions for US large-cap stocks (7.5%) and gold (5.5%). With this, Bitcoin is incorporated into the long-term return framework of traditional asset management institutions, but this does not mean JPMorgan has already recommended investors to buy.
The report also clarifies: Bitcoin is not yet included in its primary asset covariance models.​​​​​​​
What is the basis for the 10% return expectation?
JPMorgan’s long-term capital market assumptions are not short-term price forecasts but are designed to evaluate the potential returns and risks of different assets over the next 10 to 15 years.
In this framework, Bitcoin has an independent long-term return forecast for the first time. Institutional research is starting to place it side by side with traditional assets like stocks and gold within the same long-term analytical model.
However, this is not a guarantee of future Bitcoin price performance. Long-term return assumptions rely on models and scenario analysis, and actual returns are still affected by market liquidity, regulatory policy, the level of investor adoption, and the macro environment.
More importantly, a higher return does not necessarily mean better risk-adjusted investment value.
The biggest obstacle remains volatility
The report estimates Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at about 55%, significantly higher than the 18% level for US large-cap stocks.
This is a key difference between return projections and actual allocations. While Bitcoin may have greater long-term return potential, its sharp price swings increase drawdown pressures during holding periods and make its correlation with other assets more difficult to model stably.
For institutional investors, asset allocation is not only about comparing which expected return is higher, but also evaluating how assets perform in different market environments and whether they improve the overall portfolio’s risk-return profile.
JPMorgan’s decision to first provide a long-term return forecast for Bitcoin, but not yet include it in the main allocation models, reflects this cautious approach.
How far is it from research coverage to formal allocation?
Bitcoin’s inclusion in traditional financial institutions’ research frameworks is supported by the gradual improvement of trading and custody infrastructure. Spot ETFs, futures, options, and institutional-grade custody services now offer more access points for investors.
However, even as the infrastructure matures, it does not mean that institutions will automatically increase allocations. While research departments can establish return assumptions for an asset, portfolio managers must still decide if it fits specific risk budgets and allocation objectives.
JPMorgan also points out that as Bitcoin’s volatility decreases, its correlation with other assets becomes more stable, and regulatory and market liquidity improve further, it may reconsider Bitcoin’s position in portfolios in the future.
The real shift this time is not that JPMorgan predicts how much Bitcoin will rise, but that Bitcoin is now being incorporated into the long-term return calculations of traditional asset managers. When it will shift from a research subject to a formal portfolio allocation remains to be answered by the market with more stable risk performance.