Crypto Academic: The consequences of a 10.22 BTC (Bitcoin) excessive deviation rate! After this bullish candlestick, how will the market pay back?
I often say, the two most expensive words in trading are "if only." If only you had gone all-in at 81,000, if only you had exited everything at 87,000— but you didn't know ahead of time, and neither did I, nobody does. All we can do is have the courage to get in when the chart gives a signal, and the courage to get out when the chart goes bad. I've seen too many people make twenty points in a run but not take profits, ultimately losing ten points and selling at the bottom. Back when the price hadn't even fallen below 60,000, I was already reminding everyone to prepare to go north. Some tried to lead the sentiment, saying it would drop to 30,000.
The daily K-line body is steadily above all five moving averages in a bullish alignment, and the medium-term trend structure has not broken down. The MACD bars are still green but have clearly narrowed, indicating a high-level consolidation following the pullback from the previous high at 87,385, rather than a bearish crossover signaling a trend reversal. The Bollinger Bands have flattened, with the middle band at 83,224 supporting the price and the upper band at 86,231 serving as the first resistance this week. The TD Sequential just restarted the count at 2 from the bottom, meaning the main upward move from 57,758 is not yet giving a daily-level topping signal. However, after a sustained rally, the short-term deviation is quite large, so chasing highs is not cost effective.
The 4-hour K-line just closed above the Bollinger upper band at 84,333. The moment the upper band is broken, it signals a renewed burst of short-term bullish momentum. On the four-hour timeframe, the MACD has crossed bullishly and the red bars continue to grow—this is a typical sign of short-term strength. Of note, the TD Sequential has reached the 8th candle; by rule, if the next one is also bullish, it will print a 9, after which there’s often a short-term pullback for confirmation. The price rebounded from the 13-reversal at 81,127, rallying nearly 3,000 points in just a few days, and is now pressing right against the lower edge of the previous high-volume area between 85,700 and 86,000.
Short-term references:
Longs: Facing resistance at 83,500 to 83,000, stop loss 500 points, target 85,500 to 86,500
Shorts: If 86,000 to 86,500 stalls, stop loss 500 points, target 85,000 to 84,300
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