GBP/USD Price Forecast: Reflects strength above 20-day EMA ahead of UK job data

The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.22% higher at around 1.3333 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending August, which will be published at 06:00 GMT.

According to estimates, the ILO Unemployment Rate increased to 5% from 4.9% in three months ending July. Average Earnings Including Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, drops to 3.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from the previous reading of 3.9%. However, the wage growth measure Excluding Bonuses is seen higher at 3.6% YoY from 3.5% in quarter ending July.

The employment data is expected to have a significant impact on Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy expectations.

This week, the major trigger for BoE’s policy expectations is expected to be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday. Other notable UK economic data releases are Retail Sales for September and the preliminary S&P Global PMI for October, which are scheduled for Friday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure amid concerns regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending by United States (US) hyperscalers. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% lower to near 101.77.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3333. The pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3289, which suggests a mildly bullish near-term bias as buyers defend the recent recovery off last week’s lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.8 sits just above the neutral band, hinting that upside momentum is constructive but not yet stretched.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 1.3333 area as an intraday pivot, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3289, where a deeper pullback would likely attract fresh demand. With no major technical barriers overhead in this dataset, the pair would need a clear break below 1.3289 to undermine the current positive tone and expose a more corrective phase.