Weekly U.S. Equity Macro Outlook (October 5–October 9)

October 5 (Monday)

1. The U.S. releases the final September S&P Global services and composite PMIs and the September ISM non-manufacturing PMI, to gauge whether high rates and energy costs are weighing on services.
2. CME and Silicon Data launch H100 and B200 compute-rental index futures, giving the market a direct way to trade GPU rental prices.
3. Intel is expected to raise PC processor prices by about 10% again, the third round of increases since the end of 2025.

October 6 (Tuesday)

1. The U.S. releases the August trade balance and the September global supply-chain pressure index.
2. The weekly ADP employment change is released, offering a read on labor demand.

October 7 (Wednesday)

1. The U.S. releases the September New York Fed one-year inflation expectations.
2. The EIA publishes its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook; with oil prices elevated, forecasts for inventories, output and demand may amplify energy-sector volatility.
3. ★★★★ The 10th World Summit AI opens in Amsterdam, with executives from OpenAI, Meta, Google and Nvidia attending; focus is on generative-AI commercialization and compute investment.

October 8 (Thursday)

1. ★★★★★ The Fed releases the minutes of its September policy meeting at 02:00 Beijing time; markets will look for internal disagreement on rate hikes, the balance of inflation and employment risks, and the progress of the balance-sheet review. September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, below the 84,000 expected, and the odds of another October hike have fallen from about 70% to around 20%.
2. Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 3 are released, along with August wholesale inventories.
3. ★★★★ The U.S. auctions $39 billion of 10-year Treasuries. The World Summit AI enters its second day, and AMD’s Lisa Su may meet heads of Korean AI-chip firms in Seoul.

October 9 (Friday)

1. The U.S. releases the preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the preliminary one-year inflation expectation.
2. The U.S. auctions $22 billion of 30-year Treasuries; the 10-year and 30-year sales total more than $61 billion, and long-end demand will affect yields and growth-stock valuations.
3. Moderna is added to the Nasdaq-100 before the open, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery; passive rebalancing may amplify turnover and short-term swings.

*This week’s core U.S. equity themes center on the Fed minutes and the October rate-hike path, more than $61 billion of long-term Treasury auctions, the World Summit AI and Intel’s price increase, while PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines and others open the Q3 earnings warmup (S&P 500 Q3 earnings are expected to grow more than 30% year over year); market volatility is likely to intensify.