WTI holds steady near $92.00 as US weighs sending more troops to Middle East

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $91.75 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. WTI flatlines after a two-day gain as the United States (US) mulled sending another aircraft carrier group to the Middle East. 

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the Pentagon may soon send a third aircraft-carrier strike group and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. The move came as US President Donald Trump said increased military strikes against Iran were “possible” after the November midterm elections. The WTI price had a volatile session as traders weighed the improving Middle East flows against the risk of escalation.

“The oil market is highly susceptible to another spike in prices, with inventories at low levels following six months of drawdowns,” said ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. analysts Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes. “Investors are increasingly concerned that Iran will respond to the military buildup with attacks on US assets and energy infrastructure in the region,” they added. 

On Thursday, the Trump administration told the European Union (EU) to release diesel from national emergency stockpiles that would help avert US export curbs, per Bloomberg. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged European allies to help ease the global shortage.

US crude oil inventories showed a surprise increase last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending September 25 rose by 922,000 barrels, compared to a surge of 2.969 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a 300,000 barrels decline. 

Oil export ban risks storage build-up and Eurozone growth drag

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes underscores the complexity of the refined products market, noting that “crude oil is refined into a range of petroleum products, including gasoline, naphtha, paraffin, diesel, and others” which “are then shipped through pipelines or loaded onto vessels and transported to customers.” Against that backdrop, he cautions that “banning exports, as proposed by President Trump, may simply, at least in the short term, lead to diesel accumulating in storage tanks rather than lowering diesel prices for US consumers, some of whom are located a long way from the regions where excess supply might develop.”

Looking beyond the immediate market mechanics, Juckes also flags the potential macro implications, pointing out that “Consensus Eurozone growth forecasts ticked up to 1.3% in September, but will the next update bring a downward revision if bond yields and oil prices continue to rise for much longer?”

Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook in the near term

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil holds a constructive near-term tone, trading well above the 100-day moving average and supported by the lower Bollinger Band, while initial resistance is reinforced by the Bollinger middle band. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.81 sits in neutral territory, suggesting consolidation after the recent advance rather than outright exhaustion.

On the topside, resistance is seen first at the Bollinger 20-period simple moving average around $93.70, ahead of the upper Bollinger band near $100.80, which marks a potential extension area if bulls regain traction. On the downside, immediate support is aligned close to the current price at $91.80, with stronger demand expected near the lower Bollinger band at $86.65 and then at the 100-period moving average at $84.65, where a deeper pullback would likely be tested.