Guangda Futures 1009 qızıl təhlili: Uzun və qısa mövqelərin mübarizəsi güclənir, qızıl qiymətləri qalxacaq, yoxsa bu yalnız bir aldatmadır?

London spot precious metals experienced volatile fluctuations overnight; after a rapid decline in gold prices earlier, there is a need for oversold correction. Additionally, a slight pullback in long-term US Treasury yields and the US dollar retreating from its highs provide short-term support for gold prices. On the economic data front, US initial jobless claims data indicate continued resilience in employment. The Federal Reserve's expectation for a December rate hike has not completely faded, thus the upside remains constrained, and in the short term, gold is holding a bottom-range consolidation.

In terms of data, figures from the US Department of Labor show that for the week ending October 3, initial jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, and have remained near a 57-year low for four consecutive weeks, indicating the US labor market maintains considerable resilience. Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted that further interest rate hikes are still needed to drive inflation back to the 2% target, but they do not need to be implemented at consecutive meetings, and the dot plot reflects rate cuts after raising rates in early 2027. On the geopolitical front, Middle East tensions have risen again, once pushing oil prices higher; however, Trump later stated there would be no attack on Iran before the election, easing geopolitical tensions. The movement in gold reflects its sensitivity to the “inflation-interest rate” transmission chain, so a further escalation in the Middle East, continued strong oil prices, rising long-term US Treasury yields, and a stronger US dollar ultimately result in the current weak trend in gold prices.

Müəllif: Li Qi

Peşəkar lisenziya: F3046227

Ticarət məsləhətçi lisenziyası: Z0016145

Redaktor: Zhu Henan