Price increases drove a rebound in Chinese industrial profits in September; Republican election defeat expectations increase policy uncertainty; geopolitical conflicts and financial attributes suppress gold --- 1028 Macro Desiccation
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- In September, China's industrial enterprises' profit growth rate rebounded by 10.2 percentage points to 14.4%. The main reasons were the fading of base effects and the impact of price increases, rather than a pull from the AI sector. The petrochemical industry saw the largest profit recovery, while the metallurgy sector was supported by rising coal and copper prices but faced weak investment demand. The consumer sector benefited from improved household consumption. Going forward, further gains in commodity prices and moderate economic recovery are expected to continue supporting profit restoration.
- Within the US Republican Party, expectations of election defeat are intensifying and beginning to affect personnel appointments in the Trump administration as well as the Congressional legislative agenda. The combination of personnel turmoil and year-end legislative plans is increasing US policy uncertainty marginally in the fourth quarter.
- Last week, international spot and futures gold prices at one point fell below $4,000 per ounce, once again approaching the lowest level since the US-Iran conflict. Since the US-Iran conflict, the nature of gold assets may have shifted from a safe haven to a risk asset. Coupled with suppressed financial attributes and negative feedback from investment demand, the current investment value of gold is relatively low, but continued gold buying by central banks globally supports its long-term investment value.
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