Hormuz traffic remains low, showing resilience in Middle Eastern crude oil exports

(1) Institutional data shows that the seven-day average oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 9.34 million barrels per day, just slightly more than half of the pre-war benchmark of 17.15 million barrels per day, with traffic still significantly restricted. (2) However, the non-Iranian crude oil supply from the Middle East to the international market averaged around 16.70 million barrels per day from October to the present, showing a slight rebound compared to the pre-war level of 16.30 million barrels per day, demonstrating a certain resilience in overall exports. (3) This contrast indicates that despite the relatively low flow through the Hormuz channel, regional exports appear to have been partly offset through alternative routes and sources, and concerns over supply disruption have not fully materialized. (4) The subsequent focus will be on whether the flow through Hormuz can recover and whether Middle Eastern export diversification can be sustained; if geopolitical risks escalate further, oil price volatility may increase.