JPMorgan Asset Management CIO: US Treasuries could return 7%-8% in the next 12 months, long-end offers more value

According to the Zhihu Finance APP, Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that the U.S. bond market is expected to achieve about 7% to 8% returns over the next 12 months. He also believes the long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve offers the most value.

At an event held in Singapore, Michele said, “The U.S. Treasury yield curve is close to 5%,” with front-end yields slightly below this level. “Therefore, we first expect to see some price appreciation. After that, investors can benefit from carry.”

This month, overall U.S. Treasury prices have risen. The sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks, the crisis in France, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have combined to make U.S. government bonds the preferred safe-haven asset for global investors. Since October, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury has dropped more than 30 basis points, likely ending its previous seven-month streak of gains.

Michele said he believes the long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has the most value. He added that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this week but will likely return in December and release a hawkish signal.

“The Federal Reserve will indicate that it remains in a rate-hiking cycle. Long-term investors will welcome this, as they want the Fed to remain vigilant regarding economic growth and inflation pressures, while current real yields are indeed too high,” Michele said. JPMorgan Asset Management manages about $4.6 trillion in assets.

Last month, Michele said his team had begun buying long-term bonds from the U.S., Japan, and Australia, describing these bonds as “just too cheap” and declaring that the market had reached “the peak of the pain.”

According to Bloomberg’s index tracking U.S. Treasury returns, returns have declined 0.9% since 2026, after posting gains for the previous three years.