AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) plans to expand its spectrum footprint, but its 140 times "dream ratio" is targeted by Wall Street veterans

According to Zhitong Finance APP, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) is actively expanding its spectrum footprint to strengthen its satellite broadband capabilities, but the market remains unimpressed—the stock fell 1% pre-market on Monday. AST SpaceMobile’s price rose nearly 3% last Friday, closing at $39.70, but posted a weekly decline of 2%, marking its fourth consecutive week of losses. Market veteran Herb Greenberg directly called out its valuation bubble, arguing that even after a significant previous sell-off, the current pricing is still seriously out of touch with fundamentals.

Pursuing Spectrum Expansion: From “Satellite-to-Phone” to “All-Scenario Broadband”

In a statement last Friday, AST SpaceMobile’s subsidiary AST & Science proposed adding Q/V band and E-band service link capabilities to its network of 248 satellites. These links will connect satellites directly with customer terminals, further extending the proposed high-frequency operational range beyond just ground gateway connections.

The application covers frequencies between 40 and 51.4 GHz, as well as 71–74 GHz for downlink and 81–84 GHz for uplink. AST SpaceMobile stated: “This will enable an entirely new deployment model, allowing even the most basic mobile user devices, with varying bandwidth, power, and antenna sizes, to use the smallest grade of terminal.”

While the proposed service provides core connectivity to ordinary smartphones, it will also require compatible dedicated terminals. The filing notes: “AST SpaceMobile’s operations are not entirely dependent on the use of E-band; in addition to E-band, AST SpaceMobile will also use other spectrum, including Q/V band and the 700/800 MHz bands, for its user terminals.”

Currently, the application awaits approval and interference coordination processes, including safeguards for military users within certain bands.

Valuation Targeted by “Industry Veteran”: The Stark Reality Behind a 140x Price-to-Sales Ratio

Meanwhile, veteran financial journalist and investment researcher Herb Greenberg has questioned AST SpaceMobile’s actual profit potential, despite its continuously expanding addressable market. He pointed out that the stock has lost more than half its value in the past six months and recently hit a 52-week low.

“Even so, the market is still valuing it as if it were the hottest asset in history, especially compared with more mature peers in the satellite communications sector,” he pointed out sharply. Greenberg noted that AST SpaceMobile’s enterprise valuation is 140 times its revenue from the past 12 months; in contrast, Globalstar is at 38 times, Iridium at 7.5 times, and Viasat at just 3 times. He also noted that AST SpaceMobile posted an EBITDA loss of about $532 million in the past 12 months.

“A deeper dive shows that by historical multiples, you’d never realize just how far the network is from completion,” he said. He further calculated: Even if AST SpaceMobile achieves $1 billion in revenue and $50 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028, its valuation would still be 16 times revenue and 324 times adjusted EBITDA.

Greenberg admitted that “overvaluation” alone is rarely enough reason to avoid or short a stock, but he also highlighted the extremely high short interest in the stock and Fidelity’s warning about securities lending pressure.

Grand Commercial Vision, but Facing Compliance and Competitive Challenges

AST SpaceMobile plans to achieve initial intermittent coverage in the US, Canada, Japan, the UK, and Saudi Arabia by the end of the year, though it still requires regulatory approval. Continuous service will require more satellites.

“We are moving toward the goal of providing service, leveraging partnerships, spectrum, and network capabilities to bring space-based cellular broadband into people’s daily lives,” said President Scott Wisniewski.

The company has so far deployed, installed, or planned more than 60 ground gateways, supporting over 60 mobile operators whose networks cover more than 3 billion users. The aim is to secure 100 MHz of US spectrum rights by year-end and increase the number of active coverage cells from over 3,000 to 5,600. Additionally, its network for smartphones has already achieved a peak download speed of 98.9 Mbps, with next-generation satellites expected to reach approximately 200 Mbps.

However, beyond its own deployment and regulatory approval challenges, AST SpaceMobile also faces mounting external competition. Previously, SpaceX announced the acquisition of nationwide 800MHz low-frequency spectrum in the US, a move seen as a critical step for Starlink’s transition to becoming an independent mobile operator. After the news was announced, AST SpaceMobile’s share price suffered a sharp decline. The market concern is that with low-frequency spectrum, SpaceX can compensate for satellite signal penetration issues in buildings, enabling complete “satellite+terrestrial” coverage and directly challenging AST SpaceMobile’s competitive advantage with its mobile operator partners.

This competitive pressure is also present in overseas markets. In Europe, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, and Vodafone are exploring a joint bid for mobile satellite spectrum, although a satellite provider has yet to be chosen. On the other hand, Viasat has challenged a previous overseas spectrum application from AST SpaceMobile, citing interference and spectrum allocation issues, and calling it “fatally flawed.”

Retail Sentiment Cools, Short-Long Struggle Intensifies

On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment toward AST SpaceMobile has slipped from “bullish” a week ago to “neutral,” with message volume down 29% over 24 hours.

One user noticed the latest filing and commented: “If I understand correctly, the SEC just granted AST SpaceMobile the right to compete with Starlink, upending the playing field in the home broadband market.”

Another user noted: “AST SpaceMobile will be able to target Starlink’s main business! I really didn’t expect the market opportunity here to suddenly get so much bigger!”