Supply shocks weaken stock-bond diversification, Goldman Sachs optimistic about commodities as a hedge

(1) The diversification effect of traditional stock-bond portfolios is weakening, with supply shocks becoming increasingly prominent and simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds occurring more frequently. This challenges the allocation logic that relies on the negative correlation between the two. (2) From a structural perspective, Goldman Sachs points out that commodities can serve as a tool to hedge against inflationary supply disruptions, providing another source of risk buffering when both stocks and bonds are under pressure. (3) Goldman Sachs also believes that supply concentration and structural growth in demand together reinforce the long-term allocation value of copper and gold, both of which possess commodity attributes as well as strategic resource characteristics. (4) Logically, supply shocks often drive up inflation and suppress valuations, making it difficult for stocks and bonds to perform independently, while commodity prices are more sensitive to supply disruptions and thus have a temporary hedging function. (5) The next point of focus is whether supply disruptions will continue to occur frequently, and whether the supply and demand structure of commodities such as copper and gold will meet expectations of structural tightness, which will determine the actual hedging effect of commodities within the portfolio.