US and Israel reportedly plan to strike Iran after the midterm elections; Brent oil once surpassed $113, reaching a new high since May.

1. Reports indicate that the US and Israeli militaries have devised plans to strike Iran again after the US midterm elections. Market concerns about the escalating Middle East situation impacting crude oil supply pushed oil prices sharply higher on Thursday. Brent crude futures rose 4%, settling at $113.17 per barrel, the highest since May 4; WTI crude futures climbed 2.4%, settling at $99.47 per barrel.2. According to reports, the US and Israeli military plan a "short-duration, high-intensity" military operation, potentially targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, as well as missile and drone arsenals. However, it remains uncertain whether Trump will approve the plan, as he halted a nearly executed strike earlier this month. The outcome of Israel's parliamentary elections on the 27th of this month could also disrupt the plan. Iran stated that the US completing a “72-hour strike” is an illusion, and any counterattack would be fiercer and unlike before. On Wednesday, Trump stated that the US and Iran are not currently negotiating, but "something will happen soon."3. The US Department of State has ordered the evacuation of non-emergency diplomatic personnel and family members from Saudi Arabia, citing escalating Houthi attacks. The Houthis claimed to have launched four military operations against Saudi Arabia in the past 48 hours, targeting the Ministry of Defense building, King Fahd International Airport, Saudi Aramco’s Yanbu facility, and Abha Airport. Saudi Aramco has instructed employees to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely.4. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy of Iran claimed to have struck four “violating” oil tankers, while three other vessels hit mines and caught fire. They also warned that if the US continues to allow ships to transit through "illegal" routes, the scope of confrontation will expand to US bases in the region.5. Analyst David Wagner believes that the economic impact of current high oil prices may be less severe than in the past, as consumers are now less vulnerable to energy shocks: today’s $100 oil price is not comparable to two or three decades ago. Gasoline spending accounts for about half the share of American disposable income compared to ten years ago.