Strong Earnings Spark After-Hours Rally
SpaceX (
SPCX) closed at $147.79 on October 20, edging down 0.11%, before surging 8.06% to $159.70 in after-hours trading following its third-quarter earnings release. Since its June IPO, SPCX has experienced extreme volatility, climbing to $225.64 before plunging to $104.83 in August. After rebounding above $176 in early October, the stock retreated again. The latest earnings beat has provided fresh upward momentum, although confirmation during regular trading hours remains essential.
AI Becomes the Largest Revenue Driver, While Starlink Anchors Profitability
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year, while net income reached $4.40 billion, compared with a $1.05 billion loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $8.81 billion, with diluted EPS of $0.35 significantly exceeding the $0.13 consensus estimate.
The standout performer was the Superintelligence (SI) division, where revenue skyrocketed 830% to $7.56 billion, accounting for approximately 52% of total revenue. Rapid expansion in commercial AI computing services, alongside the Cursor acquisition and growing adoption of Grok, fueled the increase. SI also generated $431 million in operating profit, reversing its year-earlier loss.
Meanwhile, satellite connectivity remains the company's primary profit engine. Revenue from the connectivity segment, including Starlink, increased 69% to $5.25 billion, delivering $2.37 billion in operating profit. Starlink's consumer subscriber base expanded to 13.6 million. The aerospace segment generated $1.77 billion in revenue, up 6%, while Starship completed its first revenue-generating satellite deployment mission, paving the way for future V3 satellite launches.
SpaceX now combines rapidly expanding AI operations, a profitable satellite communications business, and continued investment in advanced launch technology.
However, this expansion comes at a substantial cost. Third-quarter capital expenditure reached $19.59 billion, including $16.44 billion allocated to SI infrastructure. Management expects spending to accelerate further to $35–40 billion in the fourth quarter. Reported net income also benefited from non-operating gains and tax-related items, making future cash flow conversion particularly important. With a market capitalization approaching $2 trillion, substantial growth expectations are already embedded in the valuation.
The $160 Level Could Determine the Next Move
Technically, SPCX has been consolidating around $140–150 after retreating from its October 6 high of $176.42. The post-earnings rally has lifted shares toward $160, bringing the stock back into an important trading zone from early October.
The immediate resistance lies at $160–163. A decisive breakout supported by stronger trading volume could open the door to $170–176. If the rally loses momentum, $154–155 becomes the first area to watch, followed by support near $145–148. The October lows around $140–143 remain important for preserving the short-term technical structure.
Since after-hours price movements alone cannot confirm a breakout, trading volume and the closing price in the next regular session will be critical.
Can Earnings Momentum Sustain Another Rally?
Looking ahead, management projects first-quarter 2027 revenue of $33–37 billion, substantially above the latest quarterly result. Progress in Starlink V3 deployment and Starship reusability could also provide additional catalysts.
Meanwhile, SpaceX and
Tesla have established special committees to discuss a potential merger, although no definitive agreement has been reached. Any valuation implications remain speculative.
For SPCX, the latest earnings have strengthened near-term sentiment and highlighted the company's expanding growth opportunities. A sustained move above $160–163, followed by a successful challenge of the $170–176 resistance zone, will be key to determining whether the stock can establish another meaningful upward trend.
2026/10/21 07:15
