JPMorgan gives first ten-year return forecast for Bitcoin with a baseline annualized return of 10%.

On October 20, JPMorgan released its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, in which it set a specific return forecast for Bitcoin for the first time. The report projects an annualized return rate of 10% under the baseline scenario for the next decade, 17% in a bullish scenario, and -9.7% in a bearish scenario. In comparison, JPMorgan expects annualized return rates of 7.5% for US large-cap stocks, 7.7% for US small-cap stocks, 5.6% to 6.6% for US bonds, and 5.5% for gold over the next ten years. According to the bank's forecasts, Bitcoin's baseline return rate will exceed those of the aforementioned traditional assets.

However, JPMorgan remains cautious about the role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios. The bank points out that Bitcoin's high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets continue to be obstacles to its widespread inclusion in portfolios. JPMorgan does not view Bitcoin as a reliable portfolio diversification tool, instead positioning it as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. The digital asset strategy team at JPMorgan believes Bitcoin primarily behaves as a high-beta risk asset related to global money supply growth, and sometimes is seen as "digital gold." Its fundamentals lack the traditional cash flow support, and its future performance will still be affected by market adoption rates, regulatory environment, and liquidity factors.