Data Brief - Major brokerages expect the Fed’s next rate hike will be in December

Update: Citi predicts

Reuters, October 15 - Data released on Wednesday shows that in September, US consumer prices rose at a faster pace (link), further reinforcing market expectations that policymakers may need to keep borrowing costs higher for longer,so major global brokerages generally expect the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates at least one more time this year .

Citi becomes the latest major brokerage to predict that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December, though several strategists noted that core inflation data consistently above expectations has significantly increased the likelihood of an October hike.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting from October 27 to 28.

According to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch data, rate futures currently show a roughly 27% chance of a rate hike in October and an 89.5% chance in December.

Here are the major brokerages' predictions for 2026:

(For the benefit of non-English speakers, Reuters has automatically translated its report into several other languages. As automated translation may contain errors or lack needed context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts and provides them only for the convenience of readers. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any harm or loss arising from the use of automated translation features.)